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Sunday, November 8, 2026 · UTC
Missions & Exploration

A house-sized asteroid on the impact watch list swings by on 12 December

2010 VQ passes 4.6 times the Moon's distance away. Its 1-in-629 long-term impact chance sounds scary; here's why it isn't.

Planetary Science Reporter
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Stands on 11 placed sources from 1 publisher and 1 first-party instrument reading.
Asteroid 2010 VQ passes safely by Earth
Asteroid 2010 VQ passes safely by Earth AI illustrationhow this picture was made
PASADENA, USA, Oct. 23, 2026 - A house-sized visitor is coming back. The asteroid 2010 VQ, about 10 metres across,[1] will sweep past Earth at 4.56 lunar distances on 12 December 2026,[2] its next close approach.[3] It is one of the near-Earth asteroids on the long-term impact monitoring list,[4] with a cumulative impact chance of about 1 in 629.[5] That sounds alarming, but the asteroid rates 0 on the Torino scale[6] and -4.41 on the Palermo scale,[7] and no impact is predicted.[8] 2010 VQ goes round the Sun every 0.80 years,[9] and right now it shines at magnitude 27.2,[10] far too faint to see without a large telescope. The same day, a second small asteroid, 2025 XN6, passes at 6.91 lunar distances.[11] Space Nugget. A lunar distance is the average distance between Earth and the Moon, about 384,000 kilometres, so 4.6 lunar distances is well beyond the Moon's orbit. Asteroids join impact-watch lists when their orbits are not yet known precisely enough to rule out a future collision; each new observation narrows the possibilities, and most are eventually cleared.
Proof11 sources · 2 publishers · signed
What this stands on
  1. 2010 VQ has an estimated diameter of 10 m. · orbitalradar.com
  2. (2010 VQ) makes a close approach to Earth at 4.56 lunar distances (2026-12-12). · DRM3 CNEOS close approaches the fact record
  3. 2010 VQ next close Earth approach is 2026-12-12. · orbitalradar.com
  4. 2010 VQ is on the long-term impact monitoring list. · orbitalradar.com
  5. 2010 VQ cumulative impact chance is 1 in 629. · orbitalradar.com
  6. 2010 VQ has a Torino scale rating of 0. · orbitalradar.com
  7. 2010 VQ has a Palermo scale value of -4.41. · orbitalradar.com
  8. No impact is predicted for 2010 VQ. · orbitalradar.com
  9. 2010 VQ orbital period is 0.80 years. · orbitalradar.com
  10. 2010 VQ apparent brightness is magnitude 27.2. · orbitalradar.com
  11. (2025 XN6) makes a close approach to Earth at 6.91 lunar distances (2026-12-12). · DRM3 CNEOS close approaches the fact record
Part of this reads the CNEOS close approaches record directly. We could not place any of them by their address. None of the publishers is an official body: that part stands on reporting, not on the underlying document or transcript.